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Do COVID-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertainty?

Claudiu Albulescu ()

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of the novel coronavirus and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using daily data for the period January 21-March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that the new infection cases reported at global level, and the death ratio, have no significant effect on the US EPU, whereas the oil price negative dynamics leads to increased uncertainty. However, analyzing the situation outside China, we discover that both new case announcements and the COVID-19 associated death ratio have a positive influence on the US EPU.

Keywords: coronavirus; economic policy uncertainty; COVID-19; oil prices; bound tests (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02509450
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