The Elusive Recovery

Georg Feigl, Markus Marterbauer, Miriam Rehm, Matthias Schnetzer, Sepp Zuckerstätter, Lars Nørvang Andersen, Thea Nissen, Signe Dahl, Peter Hohlfeld, Benjamin Lojak, Thomas Theobald, Achim Truger, Andrew Watt, Guillaume Allègre (), Céline Antonin, Christophe Blot (), Jerome Creel, Bruno Ducoudré, Paul Hubert (), Sabine Lebayon, Sandrine Levasseur, Hélène Périvier (), Raul Sampognaro (), Aurélien Saussay (), Vincent Touzé and Sébastien Villemot
Additional contact information
Lars Nørvang Andersen: Aarhus University [Aarhus]
Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paul Hubert: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hélène Périvier: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Raul Sampognaro: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Aurélien Saussay: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Nearly nine years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, recovery in Europe finally started in late 2014. We expect that economic growth is going to slow down in the EU in 2017 (1.6% after 1.9 % in 2016) and in 2018 (1.5%) as tailwinds are turning into headwinds. Brexit is likely to hit UK growth and will have negative, but limited, contagion effects to the rest of the EU. Oil prices are up again and not much more can be expected in terms of competitiveness gains through the exchange rate channel. More importantly the slowdown of international trade and of emerging countries' growth is weakening external demand to the EU and hence another positive factor is waning. [First paragraph]

Keywords: Euro area; Crisis; Market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03612850v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in [Research Report] OFCE. 2016, 223 p

Downloads: (external link)
https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03612850v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Elusive Recovery (2016)
Working Paper: The Elusive Recovery (2016)
Working Paper: The Elusive Recovery (2016)
Working Paper: The Elusive Recovery (2016)
Working Paper: The Elusive Recovery (2016)
Working Paper: The Elusive Recovery (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03612850

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().