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Details about Thomas Theobald

Homepage:http://www.boeckler.de/11011_6272.htm
Workplace:Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK) (Macroeconomic Policy Institute), Hans Böckler Stiftung (Hans Böckler Foundation), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Thomas Theobald.

Last updated 2024-03-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pth244


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Working Papers

2023

  1. Deutsche Wirtschaft erholt sich nur allmählich von der Winterrezession - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte 2023
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  2. Mehr oeffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitaeten?
    IMK Policy Brief, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  3. Schwache Dynamik nach Energiepreisschocks und Zinserhöhungen - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2023/2024
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2022

  1. Energiepreisschocks treiben Deutschland in die Rezession
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  2. Income inequality and the German export surplus
    Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium Downloads
  3. Preisschocks, Lieferengpässe und hohe Unsicherheit
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  4. Ukraine-Krieg erschwert Erholung nach Pandemie
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  5. Wirtschaftspolitik verhindert tiefe Rezession
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2021

  1. Keine Rückkehr des Schreckgespenstes Inflation - Geldpolitische Herausforderungen 2021
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (1)
  2. The Effect of borrower-specific Loan-to-Value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility
    FMM Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2021) Downloads View citations (3)

2020

  1. Makroprudenzielle Politik: Kurzfristig expansiv bleiben, mittelfristig straffen
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  2. Rasche, aber unvollständige Erholung nach historischem Einbruch
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (3)
  3. The Systemic Risk of Corporate Credit Securitization Revisited
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  4. Virus-Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2020/2021
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  5. Why the Chinese recovery will slow: Some lessons from sectoral data
    BOFIT Policy Briefs, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) Downloads
  6. Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktion mildert Corona-Einbruch: Verhaltene Erholung in Sicht
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2019

  1. Globaler Aufschwung verliert an Kraft
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  2. Konjunktur bleibt schwach Die Konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2019/2020
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  3. Starke Inlandsnachfrage bewahrt Deutschland vor Rezession
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  4. The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  5. Vom Zollscharmützel zum Handelskrieg
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  6. Wirtschaftsflaute hält an
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2018

  1. Aufschwung intakt, Risikolage verschärft
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  2. Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
    See also Journal Article Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2020) Downloads View citations (5) (2020)
  3. Geldpolitische Herausforderungen
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  4. IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2017/2018
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  5. Konjunkturaufschwung: Dauerläufer unter Stress
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  6. Politische Risiken gefährden globalen Aufschwung
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2017

  1. Aufschwung breit aufgestellt! Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2017/2018
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  2. Aufschwung setzt sich fort - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2017/2018
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  3. Ein Aufschwung mit Maß und Mitte
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  4. IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2016
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (1)
  5. Inflation trotz Aufschwung zu niedrig - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  6. Macroeconomic factors behind financial instability
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  7. Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2016

  1. Aufschwung mit schwächen
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (6)
  2. Brexit lähmt Konjunktur
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (3)
  3. Deutsche Konjunktur robust in rauem Klima
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  4. Economic outlook for the euro area
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL Downloads
    Also in Post-Print, HAL (2016) Downloads
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016) Downloads
  5. Inequality and sustainability in a healing and fragmented European Union
    Post-Print, HAL Downloads
    Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016) Downloads
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016) Downloads
  6. Konjunktur bleibt robust
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (1)
  7. Macro economic trade-offs in the euro area
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL Downloads
    Also in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016) Downloads
    Post-Print, HAL (2016) Downloads
  8. Proposals for a policy mix in the euro area
    Post-Print, HAL Downloads
    Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016) Downloads
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016) Downloads
  9. Stable finance in an unstable world
    Post-Print, HAL Downloads
    Also in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016) Downloads
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016) Downloads
  10. The Elusive Recovery
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL Downloads
    Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016) Downloads
    Working Papers, HAL (2016) Downloads
    PSE Working Papers, HAL (2016) Downloads

2015

  1. Auf langsamer Fahrt
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  2. Deutsche Konjunktur trotz globaler Unsicherheit aufwärtsgerichtet
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Finanzmarktstabilität in Zeiten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (2)
  4. Im Aufschwung - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2015/2016
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads
  5. Income inequality and Germany's current account surplus
    VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2015) Downloads View citations (2)
  6. Inlandsnachfrage stabilisiert den Aufschwung
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2014

  1. Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung in Deutschland: Eine makroökonomische Sicht
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances
    VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2013) Downloads View citations (61)

    See also Journal Article Income distribution and current account imbalances, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society (2018) Downloads View citations (56) (2018)
  4. Income and Wealth Distributionin Germany: A Macro-Economic Perspective
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (15)
  5. Konjunktur nimmt allmählich Fahrt auf - Prognose Update: Deutsche Konjunktur zur Jahreswende 2014/2015
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads

2013

  1. Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast
    VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads

2012

  1. Agent-based risk management - A regulatory approach to financial markets
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Agent-based risk management – a regulatory approach to financial markets, Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2015) Downloads (2015)
  2. Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (5)
  3. Predicting German Recessions with a Composite Real-Time Dynamic Probit Indicator
    Working Papers, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (2)
  5. Verfahren der konjunkturellen Wendepunktbestimmung unter Berücksichtigung der Echtzeit-Problematik
    IMK Studies, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute Downloads View citations (9)

Journal Articles

2022

  1. The effect of borrower-specific loan-to-value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility: An agent-based analysis
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2022, 144, (C) Downloads View citations (8)

2020

  1. EUROPEAN FISCAL RULES AS A LIABILITY IN THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE CONFLICT: LESSONS FROM NiGEM SIMULATIONS
    National Institute Economic Review, 2020, 254, R54-R66 Downloads
  2. Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
    Economic Modelling, 2020, 84, (C), 27-37 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs, IMK Working Paper (2018) Downloads (2018)
  3. Transatlantischer Handelskonflikt und die deutsche Wirtschaft: Auf die Dauer kommt es an
    (The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes)
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2020, 100, (7), 524-530 Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Why Current EU Proposals for Corona-Related Financial Aid Cannot Replace Coronabonds
    Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2020, 55, (3), 152-155 Downloads View citations (4)
  5. Wie hängen Lohnhöhe und Beschäftigung zusammen?
    (Wage Levels and Employment — On Economic Policy Advice Using the Multi-Country Model NiGEM)
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2020, 100, (10), 803-810 Downloads

2018

  1. Income distribution and current account imbalances
    (Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation)
    Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2018, 42, (1), 47-94 Downloads View citations (56)
    See also Working Paper Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances, VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy (2014) Downloads View citations (1) (2014)

2015

  1. Agent-based risk management – a regulatory approach to financial markets
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2015, 42, (5), 780-820 Downloads
    See also Working Paper Agent-based risk management - A regulatory approach to financial markets, IMK Working Paper (2012) Downloads View citations (1) (2012)

2014

  1. Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (4), 898-917 Downloads View citations (17)

2013

  1. Einkommensverteilung, Finanzialisierung und makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2013, 82, (4), 203-221 Downloads View citations (6)
 
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