Details about Thomas Theobald
Access statistics for papers by Thomas Theobald.
Last updated 2024-03-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pth244
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Working Papers
2023
- Deutsche Wirtschaft erholt sich nur allmählich von der Winterrezession - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte 2023
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Mehr oeffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitaeten?
IMK Policy Brief, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Schwache Dynamik nach Energiepreisschocks und Zinserhöhungen - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2023/2024
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2022
- Energiepreisschocks treiben Deutschland in die Rezession
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Income inequality and the German export surplus
Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium
- Preisschocks, Lieferengpässe und hohe Unsicherheit
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Ukraine-Krieg erschwert Erholung nach Pandemie
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Wirtschaftspolitik verhindert tiefe Rezession
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2021
- Keine Rückkehr des Schreckgespenstes Inflation - Geldpolitische Herausforderungen 2021
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
- The Effect of borrower-specific Loan-to-Value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility
FMM Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (3)
Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2021) View citations (3)
2020
- Makroprudenzielle Politik: Kurzfristig expansiv bleiben, mittelfristig straffen
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Rasche, aber unvollständige Erholung nach historischem Einbruch
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (3)
- The Systemic Risk of Corporate Credit Securitization Revisited
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Virus-Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2020/2021
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Why the Chinese recovery will slow: Some lessons from sectoral data
BOFIT Policy Briefs, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
- Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktion mildert Corona-Einbruch: Verhaltene Erholung in Sicht
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2019
- Globaler Aufschwung verliert an Kraft
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Konjunktur bleibt schwach Die Konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2019/2020
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Starke Inlandsnachfrage bewahrt Deutschland vor Rezession
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Vom Zollscharmützel zum Handelskrieg
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Wirtschaftsflaute hält an
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2018
- Aufschwung intakt, Risikolage verschärft
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute 
See also Journal Article Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2020) View citations (5) (2020)
- Geldpolitische Herausforderungen
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2017/2018
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Konjunkturaufschwung: Dauerläufer unter Stress
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Politische Risiken gefährden globalen Aufschwung
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2017
- Aufschwung breit aufgestellt! Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2017/2018
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Aufschwung setzt sich fort - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2017/2018
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Ein Aufschwung mit Maß und Mitte
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2016
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
- Inflation trotz Aufschwung zu niedrig - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Macroeconomic factors behind financial instability
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2016
- Aufschwung mit schwächen
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (6)
- Brexit lähmt Konjunktur
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (3)
- Deutsche Konjunktur robust in rauem Klima
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Economic outlook for the euro area
SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL 
Also in Post-Print, HAL (2016)  PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
- Inequality and sustainability in a healing and fragmented European Union
Post-Print, HAL 
Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)  PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
- Konjunktur bleibt robust
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
- Macro economic trade-offs in the euro area
SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL 
Also in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)  Post-Print, HAL (2016)
- Proposals for a policy mix in the euro area
Post-Print, HAL 
Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)  PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
- Stable finance in an unstable world
Post-Print, HAL 
Also in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)  SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)
- The Elusive Recovery
PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL 
Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)  Working Papers, HAL (2016)  PSE Working Papers, HAL (2016)
2015
- Auf langsamer Fahrt
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Deutsche Konjunktur trotz globaler Unsicherheit aufwärtsgerichtet
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
- Finanzmarktstabilität in Zeiten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
- Im Aufschwung - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2015/2016
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
- Income inequality and Germany's current account surplus
VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (3)
Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2015) View citations (2)
- Inlandsnachfrage stabilisiert den Aufschwung
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2014
- Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
- Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung in Deutschland: Eine makroökonomische Sicht
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
- Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances
VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2013) View citations (61)
See also Journal Article Income distribution and current account imbalances, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society (2018) View citations (56) (2018)
- Income and Wealth Distributionin Germany: A Macro-Economic Perspective
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (15)
- Konjunktur nimmt allmählich Fahrt auf - Prognose Update: Deutsche Konjunktur zur Jahreswende 2014/2015
IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2013
- Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast
VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association
2012
- Agent-based risk management - A regulatory approach to financial markets
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Agent-based risk management – a regulatory approach to financial markets, Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2015) (2015)
- Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (5)
- Predicting German Recessions with a Composite Real-Time Dynamic Probit Indicator
Working Papers, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics View citations (1)
- Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis
IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
- Verfahren der konjunkturellen Wendepunktbestimmung unter Berücksichtigung der Echtzeit-Problematik
IMK Studies, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (9)
Journal Articles
2022
- The effect of borrower-specific loan-to-value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility: An agent-based analysis
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2022, 144, (C) View citations (8)
2020
- EUROPEAN FISCAL RULES AS A LIABILITY IN THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE CONFLICT: LESSONS FROM NiGEM SIMULATIONS
National Institute Economic Review, 2020, 254, R54-R66
- Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
Economic Modelling, 2020, 84, (C), 27-37 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs, IMK Working Paper (2018) (2018)
- Transatlantischer Handelskonflikt und die deutsche Wirtschaft: Auf die Dauer kommt es an
(The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes)
Wirtschaftsdienst, 2020, 100, (7), 524-530 View citations (1)
- Why Current EU Proposals for Corona-Related Financial Aid Cannot Replace Coronabonds
Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2020, 55, (3), 152-155 View citations (4)
- Wie hängen Lohnhöhe und Beschäftigung zusammen?
(Wage Levels and Employment — On Economic Policy Advice Using the Multi-Country Model NiGEM)
Wirtschaftsdienst, 2020, 100, (10), 803-810
2018
- Income distribution and current account imbalances
(Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation)
Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2018, 42, (1), 47-94 View citations (56)
See also Working Paper Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances, VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
2015
- Agent-based risk management – a regulatory approach to financial markets
Journal of Economic Studies, 2015, 42, (5), 780-820 
See also Working Paper Agent-based risk management - A regulatory approach to financial markets, IMK Working Paper (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
2014
- Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model
International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (4), 898-917 View citations (17)
2013
- Einkommensverteilung, Finanzialisierung und makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2013, 82, (4), 203-221 View citations (6)
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