Details about Thomas Theobald

Access statistics for papers by Thomas Theobald.

Last updated 2024-03-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pth244

Working Papers

2023

1. Deutsche Wirtschaft erholt sich nur allmählich von der Winterrezession - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte 2023
   IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
2. Mehr oeffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitaeten?
   IMK Policy Brief, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
3. Schwache Dynamik nach Energiepreisschocks und Zinserhöhungen - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2023/2024
   IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2022

4. Energiepreisschocks treiben Deutschland in die Rezession
   IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
5. Income inequality and the German export surplus
   Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium
6. Preisschocks, Lieferengpässe und hohe Unsicherheit
   IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
7. Ukraine-Krieg erschwert Erholung nach Pandemie
   IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
8. Wirtschaftspolitik verhindert tiefe Rezession
   IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2021

9. Keine Rückkehr des Schreckgespenstes Inflation - Geldpolitische Herausforderungen 2021
   IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
10. The Effect of borrower-specific Loan-to-Value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility
    FMM Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (3)
    Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2021) View citations (3)

2020

11. Makroprudenzielle Politik: Kurzfristig expansiv bleiben, mittelfristig straffen
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
12. Rasche, aber unvollständige Erholung nach historischem Einbruch
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (3)
13. The Systemic Risk of Corporate Credit Securitization Revisited
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
14. Virus-Pandemie stürzt Weltwirtschaft in tiefe Rezession Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2020/2021
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
15. Why the Chinese recovery will slow: Some lessons from sectoral data
    BOFIT Policy Briefs, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
16. Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktion mildert Corona-Einbruch: Verhaltene Erholung in Sicht
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2019

17. Globaler Aufschwung verliert an Kraft
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
18. Konjunktur bleibt schwach Die Konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2019/2020
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
19. Starke Inlandsnachfrage bewahrt Deutschland vor Rezession
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
20. The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
21. Vom Zollscharmützel zum Handelskrieg
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
22. Wirtschaftsflaute hält an
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2018

23. Aufschwung intakt, Risikolage verschärft
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
24. Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
    See also Journal Article Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2020) View citations (5) (2020)
25. Geldpolitische Herausforderungen
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
26. IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2017/2018
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
27. Konjunkturaufschwung: Dauerläufer unter Stress
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
28. Politische Risiken gefährden globalen Aufschwung
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2017

29. Aufschwung breit aufgestellt! Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2017/2018
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
30. Aufschwung setzt sich fort - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2017/2018
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
31. Ein Aufschwung mit Maß und Mitte
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
32. IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2016
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
33. Inflation trotz Aufschwung zu niedrig - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
34. Macroeconomic factors behind financial instability
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
35. Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2016

36. Aufschwung mit schwächen
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (6)
37. Brexit lähmt Konjunktur
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (3)
38. Deutsche Konjunktur robust in rauem Klima
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
39. Economic outlook for the euro area
    Post-Print, HAL
    Also in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)
40. Inequality and sustainability in a healing and fragmented European Union
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL
    Also in Post-Print, HAL (2016)
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
41. Konjunktur bleibt robust
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
42. Macro economic trade-offs in the euro area
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL
    Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)
    Post-Print, HAL (2016)
43. Proposals for a policy mix in the euro area
    Post-Print, HAL
    Also in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)
44. Stable finance in an unstable world
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL
    Also in Post-Print, HAL (2016)
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
45. The Elusive Recovery
    Working Papers, HAL
    Also in PSE Working Papers, HAL (2016)
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2016)

2015

46. Auf langsamer Fahrt
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
47. Deutsche Konjunktur trotz globaler Unsicherheit aufwärtsgerichtet
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
48. Finanzmarktstabilität in Zeiten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
49. Im Aufschwung - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2015/2016
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute
50. Income inequality and Germany's current account surplus
    VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (3)
    Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2015) View citations (2)
51. Inlandsnachfrage stabilisiert den Aufschwung
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2014

52. Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
53. Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung in Deutschland: Eine makroökonomische Sicht
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
54. Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances
    VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
    Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2013) View citations (61)
    See also Journal Article Income distribution and current account imbalances, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society (2018) View citations (59) (2018)
55. Income and Wealth Distributionin Germany: A Macro-Economic Perspective
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (15)
56. Konjunktur nimmt allmählich Fahrt auf - Prognose Update: Deutsche Konjunktur zur Jahreswende 2014/2015
    IMK Report, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

2013

57. Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast
    VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

2012

58. Agent-based risk management - A regulatory approach to financial markets
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Agent-based risk management – a regulatory approach to financial markets, Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2015) (2015)
59. Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (5)
60. Predicting German Recessions with a Composite Real-Time Dynamic Probit Indicator
    Working Papers, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics View citations (1)
61. Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (2)
62. Verfahren der konjunkturellen Wendepunktbestimmung unter Berücksichtigung der Echtzeit-Problematik
    IMK Studies, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (9)

Journal Articles

2022

1. The effect of borrower-specific loan-to-value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility: An agent-based analysis
   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2022, 144, (C) View citations (8)

2020

2. EUROPEAN FISCAL RULES AS A LIABILITY IN THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE CONFLICT: LESSONS FROM NiGEM SIMULATIONS
   National Institute Economic Review, 2020, 254, R54-R66
3. Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
   Economic Modelling, 2020, 84, (C), 27-37 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs, IMK Working Paper (2018) (2018)
4. Transatlantischer Handelskonflikt und die deutsche Wirtschaft: Auf die Dauer kommt es an
   (The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes)
   Wirtschaftsdienst, 2020, 100, (7), 524-530 View citations (1)
5. Why Current EU Proposals for Corona-Related Financial Aid Cannot Replace Coronabonds
   Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2020, 55, (3), 152-155 View citations (4)
6. Wie hängen Lohnhöhe und Beschäftigung zusammen?
   (Wage Levels and Employment — On Economic Policy Advice Using the Multi-Country Model NiGEM)
   Wirtschaftsdienst, 2020, 100, (10), 803-810

2018

7. Income distribution and current account imbalances
   (Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation)
   Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2018, 42, (1), 47-94 View citations (59)
   See also Working Paper Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances, VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy (2014) View citations (1) (2014)

2015

8. Agent-based risk management – a regulatory approach to financial markets
   Journal of Economic Studies, 2015, 42, (5), 780-820
   See also Working Paper Agent-based risk management - A regulatory approach to financial markets, IMK Working Paper (2012) View citations (1) (2012)

2014

9. Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (4), 898-917 View citations (17)

2013

10. Einkommensverteilung, Finanzialisierung und makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2013, 82, (4), 203-221 View citations (6)