In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany

Harm Bandholz () and Michael Funke

Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers from Hamburg University, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this Paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Leading Indicators; Turning Points; Markov Switching; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-07
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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Related works:
Journal Article: In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany (2003)
Working Paper: In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany (2001)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ham:qmwops:20307

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