In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany

Harm Bandholz and Michael Funke

No 571, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions.

Keywords: business cycles; leading indicators; turning points; Markov; switching; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany (2003)
Working Paper: In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_571

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