Financial professionals' overconfidence:Is it experience, function, or attitude?

Oliver Gloede and Lukas Menkhoff

Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) from Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät

Abstract: This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals' self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a moderate degree, including many cases of underconfidence. In analyzing this, we find that working experience is accompanied by less overconfidence. Function is also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent success appears with more overconfident professionals.

Keywords: overconfidence; self-rating; forecasting; foreign exchange; better-than-average; experience; performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 F31 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2011-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn, nep-for and nep-ifn
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-428.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-428

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