Financial professionals' overconfidence:Is it experience, function, or attitude?

Oliver Gloede and Lukas Menkhoff

Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) from Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät

Abstract: This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals' self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a moderate degree, including many cases of underconfidence. In analyzing this, we find that working experience is accompanied by less overconfidence. Function is also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent success appears with more overconfident professionals.

Keywords: overconfidence; self-rating; forecasting; foreign exchange; better-than-average; experience; performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 F31 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2011-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn, nep-for and nep-ifn
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-428.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude? (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-428

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) from Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Heidrich, Christian ().