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How Child Costs and Survival Shaped the Industrial Revolution and the Demographic Transition: A Theoretical Inquiry

Holger Strulik () and Jacob Weisdorf

Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) from Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät

Abstract: This study provides a uni ed growth theory to correctly predict the initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortality and net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the course of their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate interplay between technological progress, mortality, fertility and economic growth in the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. Not only does it provide an explanation for the demographic observation that fertility rates response with a delay to lower child mortality. It also identi es a number of turning points over the course of development, suggesting a high degree of complexity regarding the relationships between various economic and demographic variables.

Keywords: Economic Growth; Mortality; Fertility; Structural Change; Industrial Revolution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O11 O14 J10 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-02
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