The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden

Thomas Jonsson () and Pär Österholm
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Thomas Jonsson: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Thomas Bergman ()

No 114, Working Papers from National Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: This paper assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey is conducted by Prospera once every quarter and consists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisa-tions. The paper shows that inflation expectations measured in this sur-vey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Results also indicate that long-run inflation expectations are overly adaptive with respect to actual inflation. Finally, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outper-formed by a simple autoregressive model. Overall, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal and/or the survey fails to capture the true inflation expectations.

Keywords: Survey data; Inflation targeting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2009-12-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0114

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