The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations

Thomas Jonsson () and Pär Österholm
Additional contact information
Thomas Jonsson: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Thomas Bergman ()

No 121, Working Papers from National Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

Keywords: Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 J30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2010-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-lab and nep-mac
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Related works:
Journal Article: The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0121

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