Female Promotions and the Academic Pipeline: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Manuel Bagues (), Milan Makany (), Giulia Vattuone () and Natalia Zinovyeva ()
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Manuel Bagues: University of Warwick, CEPR, IZA and J-Pal
Milan Makany: Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute
Giulia Vattuone: Swedish Institute for Social Research, Postal: SOFI, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Natalia Zinovyeva: University of Warwick;

No 7/2026, SOFI Working Papers in Labour Economics from Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research

Abstract: We study how faculty promotion decisions shape women’s careers and the academic pipeline, using data from 4,000 Spanish university departments across all disciplines. We identify exogenous variation in promotions using the random assignment of evaluators to promotion committees between 2002 and 2008: applicants whose committees included a co-author or colleague were significantly more likely to qualify for promotion. We document two main findings. First, failing to obtain tenure has asymmetrically lasting consequences for women. Those who narrowly miss tenure are 57 percentage points less likely to be tenured fifteen years later, compared to 29 percentage points for men. Second, when women do obtain tenure, the effects extend well beyond their own careers: promoting a woman to Associate Professor increases female faculty by 1.5 members after 15 years, leads to six additional female PhD graduates over the following decade, and raises the number who subsequently remain in academia and reach tenured positions.

Keywords: Academic Promotions; Women in Academia; Natural Experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I23 J16 J44 M51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 122 pages
Date: 2026-05-18
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