Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data

Magnus Gustavsson and Pär Österholm

No 2010:13, Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies from Uppsala University, Department of Economics

Abstract: The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness. This paper shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.

Keywords: Mean reversion; Unit-root test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E24 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13 pages
Date: 2010-12-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Labor-force participation rates and the informational value of unemployment rates: Evidence from disaggregated US data (2012)
Working Paper: Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data (2010)
Working Paper: Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data (2010)
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