経営者の在職期間と業績予想, Top Executive Tenure and Earnings Forecasts

惣平 石田, Souhei Ishida, 豊彦 蜂谷 and Toyohiko Hachiya

No 203, Working Paper Series from Center for Japanese Business Studies (HJBS), Graduate School of Commerce and Management Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: 本研究の目的は業績予想にバイアスをかけようとする経営者の動機が在職期間を通して変化するかどうかを分析することにある．分析の結果，就任間もない経営者ほど裁量的な調整を行って積極的な予想利益を公表することを発見している．これらの分析に加えて，経営者が就任して間もない時ほど実績利益が予想利益を下回る確率が高いかどうかを調査している．検証の結果，実績利益が予想利益を下回る確率は在職期間の初期時点の方が低いことが確認されている．また，就任間もない経営者は予想利益を達成するために，研究開発支出や広告宣伝支出といった支出を裁量的に削減していることが明らかとなっている．, The main purpose of this study is to examine whether top executive's incentives to bias earnings forecasts change during their tenure. We find that top executives in the early years of their service release more aggressive forecast earnings by discretional forecast management. In addition, this study analyzes whether the probability that actual earnings fall below forecast earnings is higher in the early years than in the later years of their service. This results reveal that the probability is lower in the early years of their tenure. We also find that top executives in the early years of their service discretionally cut expenditures such as R&D and advertising expenditures to meet forecast earnings.

Keywords: 経営者の在職期間; キャリア・コンサーン; 業績予想; 予想調整; Top Executive Tenure; Carrier Concern; Earnings Forecasts; Forecast Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-06
Note: 『証券アナリストジャーナル』第57巻第9号（2019年9月号）に掲載のため、論文データ（PDF）を取り下げ。[2019/12/18], Withdrawn due to publication. [Dec. 18, 2019]
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