Die IAB-Prognose der kurzfristigen Entwicklung auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt: eine Darstellung der Methode auf Basis der Sommerprognose 2008 (The IAB forecast of short-term developments on the German labour market: A presentation of the methods on the basis of the Summer Forecast 2008)

Hans-Uwe Bach, Hermann Gartner, Sabine Klinger (), Thomas Rothe and Eugen Spitznagel
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Hans-Uwe Bach: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Eugen Spitznagel: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 200905, IAB-Forschungsbericht from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "The Institute for Employment Research regularly informs about the current situation and future development on the labour market. For example, it serves as consultant of the Federal Employment Agency and its autonomous administrative bodies, and the Federal Ministry of Labour. Such information is necessary, for instance, in the course of budget planning and the monthly press releases of the Federal Employment Agency. The IAB's short reports on labour market forecasts usually find a large echo in the media. They are the basis for decision makers in politics, companies and associations as well as for other researchers. IAB's disaggregation of the forecast is unique. It provides information on unemployment by social codes II and III, employees in the regular or subsidized labour market, employment by status. All data is given for eastern and western Germany separately. This research report documents the procedure of IAB's forecasting in the short-run. The framework is the so called balance-sheet of the labour market which depicts the coherence of labour supply, (filled) labour demand, and unemployment. Forecast values in the balance-sheet are found by means of econometric forecasting, trend forecasting or plausible assumptions. The final forecast appears after a few iterations when all parts of the balance sheet are attuned to each other. Forecast evaluation reveals a similar accuracy as of other leading forecasting institutes." (Authors' abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Prognostik; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2009
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ger
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