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Is the Recent Low Oil Price Attributable to the Shale Revolution?

Cheolbeom Park () and Erdenebat Bataa ()

No 1704, Discussion Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Korea University

Abstract: The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 52% of total U.S. crude oil was produced from shale oil resources in 2015. We examine whether the recent low crude oil price is attributable to this shale revolution in the U.S., using a SVAR model with structural breaks. Our results reveal that U.S. supply shocks are important drivers of real oil price and, for example, explain approximately a quarter of the 73% decline between June 2014-February 2016. Failure to consider statistically significant structural changes results in underestimating the role played by global supply shocks, while overestimating the role of the demand shocks.

Keywords: Oil market; structural breaks; U.S. shale revolution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-mac
Date: 2017
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Journal Article: Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution? (2017) Downloads
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