Is the Recent Low Oil Price Attributable to the Shale Revolution?

Erdenebat Bataa and Cheolbeom Park

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 52\% of total U.S. crude oil was produced from shale oil resources in 2015. We examine whether the recent low crude oil price is attributable to this shale revolution in the U.S., using a SVAR model with structural breaks. Our results reveal that U.S. supply shocks are important drivers of real oil price and, for example, explain approximately a quarter of the 73\% decline between June 2014-February 2016. Failure to consider statistically significant structural changes results in underestimating the role played by global supply shocks, while overestimating the role of the demand shocks.

Keywords: Oil market; structural breaks; U.S. shale revolution. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 C51 Q4 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-07-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (32)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution? (2017)
Working Paper: Is the Recent Low Oil Price Attributable to the Shale Revolution? (2017)
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