Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

International Monetary Fund

No 1990/041, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator” variables recently suggested by Federal Reserve officials. In this regard, a careful review of the relevant conceptual distinctions--concerning instruments, targets, indicators, etc.--is required. Finally, the proposal that strategy should be conducted so as to place minimal reliance on quantity variables is given attention, in the context of evidence concerning the merits of an interest rate instrument.

Keywords: WP; price level; real GNP; inflation rate; money demand; RMSE values; simulation result; target path; indicator variable; spot-price price index; nominal GNP; Personal income; Monetary base; Vector autoregression; Inflation; Price stabilization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40
Date: 1990-01-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=27180 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1990/041

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().