Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries

Atish Ghosh () and Jonathan Ostry

No 1994/008, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their level of savings. The resulting asset accumulations would then act as the country’s insurance against the greater riskiness in its income stream. The paper tests this implication for a large sample of developing countries. In general, the results suggest that developing countries have indeed responded to increases in export instability by building up precautionary savings balances.

Keywords: WP; export instability; export diversification strategy; export base; export diversification result; fuel exporter; slope coefficient; Export earnings; Precautionary savings; Exports; Current account; Consumption; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Africa; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 1994-01-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (74)

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Journal Article: Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries (1994)
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