The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea
Jorge Roldos and
Alexander Hoffmaister
No 1996/020, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund
Abstract:
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Keywords: WP; exchange rate; open economy; inflation rate; Korea's output response; exchange rate shock; linear transformation; input price; effects of adjustment program; Real exchange rates; Supply shocks; Inflation; Oil prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 1996-02-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=1874 (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea (2001) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1996/020
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().