Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden

Josef Baumgartner, Göran Zettergren and Ramana Ramaswamy

No 1997/034, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper derives a set of leading indicators of inflation for Sweden. It also discusses methodological and policy issues pertaining to the estimation of these indicators. The main findings are: (1) narrow money is the most powerful leading inflation indicator; (2) broad money and inflation expectations have significant predictive information on inflation; (3) the output gap, interest rates, and the credit aggregate have some predictive information on inflation, and this information is confined to a shorter time horizon than either the monetary aggregates or inflation expectations; and (4) implied forward rates have only weak predictive information on inflation.

Keywords: WP; inflation expectation; real GDP; GDP deflator; yield curve; time horizon; Sweden; inflation; leading indicators; inflation report; underlying inflation; inflation well; Inflation targeting; Cyclical indicators; Nominal effective exchange rate; Exchange rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 1997-04-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2144 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/034

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().