Parametric Distributional Flexibility and Conditional Variance Models with an Application to Hourly Exchange Rates

Jeanette Lye

No 1998/029, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper builds on the ARCH approach for modeling distributions with time-varying conditional variance by using the generalized Student t distribution. The distribution offers flexibility in modeling both leptokurtosis and asymmetry (characteristics seen in high-frequency financial time series data), nests the standard normal and Student t distributions, and is related to the Gram Charlier and mixture distributions. An empirical ARCH model based on this distribution is formulated and estimated using hourly exchange rate returns for four currencies. The generalized Student t is found to better model the empirical conditional and unconditional distributions than other distributional specifications.

Keywords: WP; ARCH; Generalized Student t Distributions; Modeling Variance; Exchange Rates; conditional distribution; Stud. t; distribution parameter; Gram Charlier distribution; mixture distribution; Standing facilities; Currencies; Exchange rate modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 1998-03-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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