Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects

Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Günther Taube

No 1998/132, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.

Keywords: WP; Uzbek experience; output performance; reform policy; private sector; Uzbek growth path; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Sustainability; unmeasured Uzbekistan effect; Uzbek authorities; Uzbek growth experience; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Structural reforms; Agricultural sector; Public investment spending; Baltics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 1998-09-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/132

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