Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach

Alexei Kireyev ()

No 2000/054, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.

Keywords: WP; macroeconomic dynamics; null hypothesis; terms of trade; VAR model; VAR; economic growth; panel data; Arab countries; program country; oil country; oil-producing country; program countries group; country-specific variable; Arab country; Oil; Oil prices; Current account; Current account balance; Fiscal stance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52
Date: 2000-03-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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