How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

Prakash Loungani

No 2000/077, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions? (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased? (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations? (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy? Two key results emerge. First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.

Keywords: WP; real GDP; Forecasting; Recessions; GDP; Consensus; IMF; recession year; B. forecasting recession; developing country sample; forecaster discord; industrialized country sample; positive correlation; Production growth; Income inequality; Private capital flows; GDP forecasting; Economic recession; Africa; Global; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2000-04-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Journal Article: How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth (2001)
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