Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account

Ian McDonald, Serge Bésanger and Ross Guest

No 2000/115, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of results to changing demographic structures on employment participation, labor productivity; and consumption demands. In particular, the simulations reveal that variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.

Keywords: WP; saving; support ratio; ratio; Current Account Balance; Savings; Investments; Aging; Demography; consumption demand; saving rate decrease; saving pattern; saving ratio; consumption weight; wealth-consumption ratio; saving performance; consumption-smoothing effect; national saving; Consumption; Labor productivity; Demographic change; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 2000-06-01
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