El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?

Allan Brunner ()

No 2000/203, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 20 percent of movements in those variables.

Keywords: WP; El Nino southern oscillation; price; ENSO event; commodity; ENSO; El Niño; primary commodity prices; ENSO intensity; ENSO measure; ENSO shock; inflation movement; ENSO cycle; Commodity prices; Inflation; Consumer prices; Agricultural commodities; South America (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2000-12-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air? (2002)
Working Paper: El Nino and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air? (1998)
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