Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Steven Phillips and Alberto Musso

No 2001/045, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: “Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.

Keywords: WP; program projection; projection error; IMF-supported program; cross-program data; program number; program outcome; IMF; programs; projections; forecasts; follow-up program dummy; program scenario; program year; transition economy program; program objective; Inflation; Capital account; Current account balance; Current account; Capital account balance; East Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2001-05-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=4063 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs (2002)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/045

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().