Short-Term Forecasting: Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead

Matteo Iacoviello

No 2001/109, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries

Keywords: WP; GDP; Forecasting; Bayesian Vector Autoregressions; leading indicators; GDP growth; growth forecast; GDP estimate; growth YOY; GDP forecast; Cyclical indicators; Industrial production; Vector autoregression; GDP forecasting; Production index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2001-08-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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