Systemic Financial Crises, Balance Sheets, and Model Uncertainity

Melvyn Weeks and Mark Stone

No 2001/162, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper empirically examines the probability and intensity of financial crises during the 1990s with a view to informing crisis prevention and mitigation policies. The econometric analysis uses a decision-theoretic approach, rather than the more standard general-to-specific approach, to address the high degree of model uncertainty. The results affirm the importance of balance sheets in the probability and intensity of financial crises, especially corporate balance sheet stresses and foreign exchange liquidity shortfalls. Model uncertainty is a bigger problem for estimating crisis intensity compared to crisis probability.

Keywords: WP; crisis intensity; crisis probability; currency crisis; bank crisis; financial reform; mitigation policy; crisis indicator; indicator group; crisis channel; crisis prevention policy; Legal support in revenue administration; Financial statements; Capital inflows; Middle East; East Asia; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38
Date: 2001-10-01
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15372 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/162

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().