Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence

Francisco Nadal De Simone

No 2002/229, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its test statistic suggest a great deal of comovement/synchronization between output cycles. Following that result, a dynamic factor model is estimated. Output fluctuations are mostly explained by a global common component and an euro area common component. However, idiosyncratic components also matter, especially for France, the rest of the euro area, and the United States.

Keywords: WP; Italy; real GDP; business cycles; common; European and idiosyncratic components; state-space Models; IT output; pairs FR-IT; FR real GDP series; FR expansion; REA output; Cyclical indicators; Inflation; Social security contributions; Factor models; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19
Date: 2002-12-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16240 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/229

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().