Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs

Mikhail Golosov and John King

No 2002/236, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.

Keywords: WP; tax revenue; tax revenue forecast; GDP; Forecasting; tax revenues; IMF-supported programs; nominal tax revenues; revenue estimation; forecasted tax revenue ratio; revenue collector; program revenue; tax ratio; Revenue forecasting; Budget planning and preparation; Debt bias; GDP forecasting; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2002-12-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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