The ECB'S Money Pillar: An Assessment

Albert Jaeger

No 2003/082, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper discusses the case for a money pillar in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy strategy. Time-series evidence for industrial countries based on frequency-domain and unobserved-components analysis suggests that money can play a useful role in gauging and constraining long-run risks to price stability. Moreover, the specter of asset price bubbles and some of the area's institutional features, which may impart considerable persistence to area-wide inflation, caution against shifting to conventional inflation targeting. But the time series evidence also seems to point to a relatively loose connection between variations in nominal money growth and inflation in the short to medium run. As a consequence, effective communication of the ECB's monetary policy decisions from the point of view of the present money pillar is likely to remain a challenging task.

Keywords: WP; monetary policy; inflation rate; central bank; central banks and their policies; policy strategy; ECB-type definition; executive board member; communication gap; money pillar; policy stance; longer-run inflation objective; ECB-type definition of price stability; inflation objectives amount; ECB's communication; money stock; money growth; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Price stabilization; Asset bubbles; Inflation persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2003-04-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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