Potential Output and total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Vivek Arora and Ashok Bhundia

No 2003/178, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper provides estimates of potential output growth in post-apartheid South Africa using both time trend techniques and a production function approach which indicates a potential growth rate of around 3 percent. The implied output gap provides statistically significant information for predicting inflation and could thus provide valuable input for formulating macroeconomic policy. Growth accounting and regression analysis suggest that an increase in trend GDP growth after the end of apartheid in 1994 is attributable to higher TFP growth driven by trade liberalization and greater private sector participation.

Keywords: WP; inflation; estimate; Potential output; output gap; total factor productivity; South Africa; output gap measure; production function approach; estimates of the output gap; output gap methodology; potential GDP; Capacity utilization; Production growth; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2003-09-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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