Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data

Alain Kabundi ()

No 2004/069, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indicator for economic activity in France using data from business surveys. We use the generalized dynamic factor model à la Forni and others (2000) to extract common components from a large number of survey observations. The results obtained show that the resulting indicator forecasts economic activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy before the release of actual data.

Keywords: WP; random walk; Dynamic factor models; survey data; economic forecasting; RW model; economic growth rate; generalized dynamic factor model; economic indicator index; time series; negative correlation correlation coefficient; Cyclical indicators; Business cycles; Stocks; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2004-04-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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