Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

Atish Ghosh (), Juan Zalduendo, Manuela Goretti, Bikas Joshi and Alun Thomas

No 2007/070, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

Keywords: WP; IMF resource; IMF credit; SDR; time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44
Date: 2007-03-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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