Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

Kenji Moriyama and Abdul Naseer

No 2009/132, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.

Keywords: WP; price; forecasting inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2009-06-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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