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Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?

Francesco Grigoli and Dalia Hakura

No 2010/122, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy.

Keywords: WP; MENAP country; GDP; country; recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2010-05-01
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Journal Article: Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: have macroeconomic policies been effective? (2014) Downloads
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