Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

No 2012/096, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.

Keywords: WP; math; Potential output; Cambodia; growth diagnostics; productivity gain; productivity improvement; export diversification; investment rate; productivity level; productivity term; Phillips curve; aggregate production function; saving rate; Productivity; Output gap; Total factor productivity; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2012-04-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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