The Driving Force behind the Boom and Bust in Construction in Europe

Yan Sun, Pritha Mitra and Alejandro Simone

No 2013/181, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper studies the factors behind pro-cyclical but widely varying construction shares (as a percent of GDP) across countries, with a strong focus on European countries. Using a dataset covering 48 countries (including advanced and emerging economies within and outside Europe) for 1990-2011, we find that country’s geography, demographics, and economic conditions are the key determinants of a norm around which actual construction shares revolve in a simple AR(1) and error-correction process. The empirical results show that in many European countries, construction shares overshoot relative to their norms before the recent global crisis, but they have fallen significantly since the crisis. Nevertheless, there is still room for further adjustment in construction shares in some countries which may weigh on economic recovery.

Keywords: WP; construction share; Construction; Business Cycle; Error-correction; European Growth; share of construction; significance level; norm vis-a-vis; adjustment dynamics of construction share; share norm equation; estimated construction share norm; construction share norm; medium-term norm; norm equation; adjustment in construction share; increase in construction share; Stock markets; Capital spending; Housing; Income; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2013-08-21
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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