Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

Paulo Drummond and Estelle Liu

No 2013/250, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.

Keywords: WP; China; export; investment; exporter; trade; sub-Saharan Africa; spillover; panel data; econometrics; FAI growth; CEIC China database; China-SSA trade; growth slowdown; fixed assets investment; trade engagement; Exports; Export performance; Imports; Oil; Natural resources; Africa; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2013-12-17
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41144 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/250

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().