An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries

Maximilien Kaffo Melou, Mariusz Sumlinski and Chris Geiregat

No 2014/102, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We analyse the debt dynamics in countries that benefited from the HIPC/MDRI debt relief initiatives with a view to applying a probabilistic approach to estimating future debt paths for those countries. We extend the probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) proposed by Celasun et al. (2006). This required addressing the twin challenges of a the time period that is too short to conduct country-by-country estimations and the presence, suggested by econometric evidence, of a break–point around 2006 in the dynamics of debt accumulation. To overcome the data limitations, we pool the data and estimate a panel VAR, thus taking advantage of the large cross–section. To account for the break–point, while applying a probabilistic approach to forecasting debt paths, we use the post–break–point information so as not to bias the forecasts of debt paths. As an illustration of the approach we apply the methodology to eight countries with different debt profiles.

Keywords: WP; output gap; HIPC; MDRI; fan chart; debt sustainablity; panel data estimation methodology; coefficient estimate; MDRI debt relief; WB baseline DSA forecast; MDRI beneficiary; confidence interval; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt relief; Fiscal stance; Debt sustainability; Africa; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2014-06-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41642 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/102

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().