China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

Alexei Kireyev () and Andrei Leonidov

No 2016/051, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.

Keywords: WP; demand shock; network effect; shocks; spillover; spillin; spillback; trade; network; import shock; trade network; China's imports; import demand shock; imports slowdown; shock spillover; merchandise imports; Imports; Export earnings; Exports; Spillovers; Trade balance; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45
Date: 2016-03-07
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43774 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/051

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().