China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?
Kamiar Mohaddes (),
Mehdi Raissi and
Paul Cashin ()
No 2016/063, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund
China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.
Keywords: WP; China’s slowdown; global financial market volatility; international business cycle; Global VAR; financial market volatility; world commodity market; GVAR model; slowdown pose; volatility shock; trade weight; growth spillover; commodity price linkage; China slowdown; Vector autoregression; Oil prices; Financial soundness indicators; Long term interest rates; Plurilateral trade; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out? (2017)
Working Paper: China’s Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out? (2016)
Working Paper: China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out? (2016)
Working Paper: China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out? (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/063
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().