The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

Francisco Roch

No 2017/208, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

Keywords: WP; commodity price; commodity; Chile; Peru; Commodity Prices; Fiscal Policy; Flexible Exchange Rates; Colombia; Peru t; commodity exporters' emerging economies; oil price decline; large commodity price shock; shock to commodity price; country-specific commodity price index; propagation mechanism of commodity price shock; contribution of commodity price; effects of commodity-price fluctuation; Colombia t; adjustment to commodity price; Commodity price shocks; Current account; Technology transfer; Current account deficits; Sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2017-09-29
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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