Potential Growth in Colombia

Sergi Lanau, Jorge Roldos and Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado

No 2017/238, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.

Keywords: WP; price; investment; oil price; Potential output; Colombia; commodity export price; investment rate; potential GDP; Brent oil price; government investment plan; structural oil price; structural price; commodity exporter; oil prices stabilization; productivity effect; investment forecast; investment plan; Oil prices; Infrastructure; Productivity; Commodity prices; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 2017-11-13
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45350 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/238

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().