A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle

Benjamin Carton, Joannes Mongardini and Yiqun Li

No 2018/022, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality, but depends on smartphone product release dates. Decomposing cycle from trend, we also show that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015. Asia, however, continues to gain in importance as the global tech manufacturer.

Keywords: WP; smartphone; China; export; electronics export order; Samsung smartphone; global supply chains; global trade; tech cycle; smartphone export cycle; export order; smartphone release; Apple iPhones; China exports decomposition; release date; Exports; Mobile internet; Export performance; Global; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2018-01-24
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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