Smart Containment: Lessons from Countries with Past Experience

Alexandra Fotiou and Andresa Lagerborg

No 2021/099, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Following the Great Lockdown in 2020, it is important to take stock of lessons learned. How effective have different containment measures been in slowing the spread of Covid-19? Have containment measures been costly in terms of economic growth, fiscal balances, and accumulated debt? This paper finds that countries with previous SARS experience acted fast and "smart", and were able to contain the virus by relying mainly on public health measures ─ testing, contact tracing, and public information campaigns ─ rather than stay-at-home requirements. Using past coronavirus outbreaks as an instrumental variable, we show that countries with past experience were able to contain the virus in a smart way, reducing transmission and deaths while also experiencing higher economic growth in 2020.

Keywords: containment measure; information campaign; contact tracing; smart containment; containment policy; success ranking; country income group dummy; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Income; Communicable diseases; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Northern Europe; Africa; Middle East (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 54
Date: 2021-04-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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