IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers

Shekhar Aiyar and Manasa Patnam

No 2021/146, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines whether IMF lending is associated with increases in outflows to offshore financial centers (OFCs), known for bank secrecy and asset protection, relative to other international destinations. Using quarterly data from the BIS on bilateral bank deposits, we are unable to detect any positive and statistically significant effect of IMF loan disbursements on bank deposits in OFCs. The result holds even after restricting the sample to the duration of the IMF program, where disbursement quarters and non-disbursement quarters should be subject to similar degrees of macroeconomic stress. It is also robust to using the scheduled tranche of disbursements as an instrument for actual disbursements. While the effects vary by the type and conditionality of the IMF program, as well as the amount of lending, none of the effects are found to be positive and statistically significant. We also estimate whether the recent surge in emergency lending, during the Covid-19 crisis, is associated with an increase in outflows to OFCs but find no evidence to support this.

Keywords: IMF loan disbursement; IMF disbursement; disbursement quarter; IMF emergency lending; IMF loan tranche; IMF aid disbursement; Offshore financial centers; Corruption; Loans; Bank credit; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2021-05-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
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Related works:
Journal Article: IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers (2025)
Working Paper: IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers (2024)
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