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Political Institutions and Output Collapses

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

No 2023/036, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.

Keywords: Economic growth; autocracy; democracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60
Date: 2023-02-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro and nep-pol
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