Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of US-China Trade Tensions

Lorenzo Rotunno, Sanchari Roy, Anri Sakakibara and Pierre-Louis Vézina

No 2024/263, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We use the US-China tariffs of 2018-19 as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam to identify how trade policy affects job creation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we first show that US tariffs on China increased the range of products exported by Vietnam to the US in the two years after the hikes. We then show using firm level data that this expansion in export opportunities led to job creation. Around 5% extra jobs were created in firms hit with average tariffs above 15%. Results point towards this effect being driven mostly by female employment.

Keywords: Vietnam; US-China trade tensions; trade policy; exports; employment; US-China tariff; jobs in Vietnam; export opportunity; tariff hike; US-China trade tension; Tariffs; Trade tensions; Job creation; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2024-12-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-int, nep-sea and nep-tra
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