The Integration of Global Value Chain in the EU: Stylized Facts and Drivers

Younghun Shim, Iglika Vassileva and Mengxue Wang

No 2026/002, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines EU global value-chain (GVC) integration and analyzes its drivers using machine learning models, with case studies of Portugal and Belgium. GVC participation appears to boost productivity and technology upgrading, but also brings concentration risks in the current environment. Results indicate labor cost, labor productivity and human capital as key drivers, supported by infrastructure, manufacturing base, and governance quality. Portugal remains downstream, constrained by low high-tech intensity, while Belgium is highly integrated but exposed to sectoral shocks. Strengthening the EU single market, capital-market integration, and individual countries’ investment in skills, innovation, and diversification would bolster resilience while preserving the benefits of openness.

Keywords: Global Value Chain Integration; Export; Forward Linkages; Backward Linkages; Machine Learning Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2026-01-09
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=573063 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/002

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().